Quantifying Bioclimatic Factors Associated with Increased Risk and Severity of Bushfire Occurrence
Terrestrial ecosystems, including savanna, rangelands, and forests, across Australia have exhibited a high degree of fire risk in recent years. Since 2001, there have been three megafire years – defined as a year in which more than one million hectares burned – and the duration of the fire season has also been increasing. Studies suggest that climate change will further increase fire danger over the forthcoming decades. Preventive fire management in Australia relies on prescribed, planned burns in targeted high-risk areas to avoid larger fires in the future. Optimal targeting of prescribed burning strategies requires quantifying the role of various bioclimatic factors such as fuel loads (i.e., biomass availability or vegetation indices), temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, wind speeds and other potential factors associated with fire risk. The proposed project will use geospatial data to undertake a risk assessment and identify key factors associated with a heightened likelihood of fire ignition and increased extent of burned area.
